Will the Memphis Grizzlies get contender status for Christmas?

They'll surely have to earn it.

To this point in the NBA season, the Memphis Grizzlies certainly look the part of NBA heavyweight. They currently are tied with the New Orleans Pelicans for the #1 seed in the Western Conference and the 3rd best overall record in the entire NBA…and that’s without their three stars (Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane) playing a single minute together in the campaign. They are 4th in efficiency differential in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass and have returned to defensive form with Jaren Jackson Jr.’s epic defensive start to the season (his mammoth 6.6% block rate is among the best in the NBA).

With a legitimate top-10 NBA player in Morant and two All-Star tier co-stars in Jackson Jr. and Bane, the Grizzlies should be a title contender on everyone’s radar - or at least a favorite to make the Western Conference Finals. And yet, when you see or hear conversation about teams capable of winning the NBA Finals, Memphis’ name is rarely brought up. Since the Grizzlies had the NBA’s 2nd best regular season record last season and are currently in the same general space while being down key players, this is mildly surprising - even for a small market team.

So what gives? Why isn’t Memphis talked about like Milwaukee, Boston, and other teams?

Beyond the obvious (Milwaukee and Boston have been in the Finals recently), the answer lies in who Memphis has beaten to this point. Only 7 of the Grizzlies 18 wins have come against teams with winning records - two of those wins being against the same team (the 14-13 New York Knicks). The average record of every team Memphis has beaten so far this season is roughly 12-15. And while there are some good wins in there - the Pelicans (18 wins), and Philly (15 wins) for example - even in those victories there were caveats (no James Harden for the Sixers, no C.J. McCollum for the Pelicans).

None of the smallest violins in the world will be playing in Memphis for these teams, of course, nor should they. Again - the best three Grizzlies players have yet to share the floor this season, and may not do so until 2023 (hopefully sooner). A win is a win, and you play who is on your schedule. But even in impressive showings, they have either come usually against undermanned teams (Brooklyn early in the season and Miami perhaps being the biggest exceptions) or in games that Memphis at this stage “should win”.

But the time is coming where that will change.

Starting Thursday night against the Milwaukee Bucks, Memphis begins a stretch of games against some of the very best the NBA has to offer. Outside of Saturday’s visit to Oklahoma City, the next nine games are against teams either in the playoff or play-in picture in their respective conferences. The Christmas Day game at Golden State (the biggest regular season game in Memphis Grizzlies history) looms large, but two games in four days against the Phoenix Suns bookending that showdown should as well. Denver and Toronto on the road are also part of that stretch, and the difficult end of 2022 is capped off with a home-and-home back-to-back against the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings.

If the Grizzlies schedule was “soft” to this point, it is about to get a lot harder.

Not that Memphis is concerned. Their culture and way of conducting business will remain steady, and the good news for them is besides the Pelicans/Kings New Years extravaganza there are no back to backs in this stretch. By the time those games roll around, the hope is Desmond Bane is back in the fold and the team will (finally) be at full strength. They need to find exactly who they are with the roster healthy, so they can decide if a trade is needed to try to strengthen their contender status this season (it may not be…and this front office continues to not be interested in such transactions anyway, at least not yet.)

If you’re trying to find out just how “real” you are, you have to match up with the very best and measure yourselves against other standard bearers. The Memphis Grizzlies are about to get that chance. Is Jaren Jackson Jr. really a Defensive Player of the Year candidate? Is Ja Morant in the MVP conversation? Are role players like John Konchar and Santi Aldama up to the challenge against battle tested veteran NBA stars?

We won’t have all the answers as 2022 to 2023. But we will have a better understanding of where we are on this Memphis Grizzlies journey.