Why I am not worried about the Memphis Grizzlies
At least, not yet.
(This is a rough summary of what occurred at my home on Christmas Day).
Ah, Christmas. A wonderful time of the year. A time to enjoy gifts, family, food, and basketball. And look, the Memphis Grizzlies are on! Ja Morant, am I right? What a star - I can’t wait to buy those shoes! They look AWESOME! What a great opportunity for the team and franchise, I bet they’re going to be great! Let’s watch!
(Watches game)
Shit.
(End scene)
The Memphis Grizzlies let a golden opportunity slip away on Sunday night at Chase Center against the Golden State Warriors. It was just 1 regular season game out of 82…but it wasn’t. Christmas is the NBA’s biggest stage, and it was the 8:00 PM ET slot. Primetime. The A crew of announcers. Celtics/Bucks was arguably the better game on paper (phew, Boston is a PROBLEM), but this game had the combination of star power (until Steph Curry’s injury) and spice (SO MUCH TRASH TALK). Surely the Grizzlies would be ready to go.
But the game began. And they were actually not ready to go.
Except for Ja Morant, who had a strong performance and almost finished the dunk of the century…
…the rest of the team struggled mightily. Dillon Brooks became the 2nd Grizzlies player in double figures scoring almost halfway through the 4th quarter. Jaren Jackson Jr. once again battled foul trouble, only logging 21 minutes in the game. Desmond Bane shot an abysmal 2-13 from the floor (and 0-7 from beyond the arc!!!). And Ziaire Williams and John Konchar in 35 minutes total played combined for 3 points on 11 shots.
None of that will win the Grizzlies games, whether it’s against a strong (at home) Golden State team or any squad in the NBA. Ja Morant cannot do it alone. And on this road trip, far too often that was the case. That, more than anything, stands out for Memphis as they return home to FedExForum for a Tuesday date with the Phoenix Suns. Thank goodness - Memphis is 7-10 on the road this season.
But fear not, dear reader. As disappointing as Sunday’s defeat was (and it was, indeed, a disappointment) it is not an indictment of the season ahead. In fact, I am more excited about the Memphis Grizzlies and their prospects this season than I have been at any point this season.
Why? I’m glad you asked.
The Western Conference is for the taking
New Orleans. Denver. Memphis. Phoenix. The L.A. Clippers. Be honest - if any of those five teams made the Western Conference Finals, would you be surprised? The answer after Christmas is probably no. All their fan bases have legitimate reasons to argue for their respective teams, and all those teams have at least 19 wins as the post-Christmas slate approaches. That doesn’t even include the reigning champion Golden State Warriors, who will likely move up the standings as the season progresses.
No disrespect to the feel-good and offensively elite Sacramento Kings (light the beam!), or the surprising Utah Jazz, but the six teams mentioned in the previous paragraph are the likely favorites to be among the top seeds in the playoffs. And others - Portland, Dallas - could be in that mix as well. In the Western Conference, you’re a 5-game winning or losing streak from either being the #1 or #8 seed in the postseason. More and more games matter in a space where parity rules.
How does this help Memphis?
It’s in HOW they got here
They are a team that, intrinsically, has the most room for growth. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s foul issues are well-known, but the current funk is short-term uncharacteristic if not long-term expected. Jaren had been better in that area in recent seasons. Entering the Christmas game Jaren Jackson Jr. was posting a career-low 4% foul percentage. Last season over a larger sample he was at 4.2%. At his worst, the season before that, he was at 6.4% per Cleaning the Glass.
Jaren once was among the NBA’s worst in foul percentage. Over his last 2,400 minutes played roughly, he’s now middle of the pack in this area. That’s not great. But it is indicative of a larger trend that Jackson Jr. should get back to defending without fouling at a better clip.
Desmond Bane is one of the league’s top three point shooters. He shot 44% from beyond the arc before Christmas so far this season, and the season before that - again, on a larger sample size - he also shot 44% from three. He is returning from a toe injury, which directly impacts not only conditioning but also how you set your feet and release on a jumper. Running scrimmages in 5 on 5 in practice is not the same as NBA game speed. His current cold shooting is not who he is as a player.
Both Bane and Jackson Jr. will get better. And they’ll do so on the floor at the same time for the first time since May. Without consistent contributions from both Jaren and Desmond - contributions that, again, they’ve shown time and again they’re capable of - the Memphis Grizzlies are among the NBA’s best.
Depth matters. But in the NBA, you’ll only go as far as your best guys take you. And Memphis’ best guys are currently cold with a high probability of heating up. All while going 7-3 in their last 10 games, and with one of the NBA’s easier schedules remaining according to Tankathon.
And the possibility for more beyond those two…
Ziaire Williams has not consistently shown the ability to be what Memphis hopes he can be. But the potential for him to be that player is greater than his current issues. His frame, his athleticism, his ability to move within scheme and be fluid in transition…those flashes to this point since his own return from injury have been few and far between. The Grizzlies bet on those being more established than they have been. But they also didn’t plan on their young 2021 lottery pick coming back from a knee injury of his own.
Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams are essentially what they are - good to very good players that can help impact winning as starters. The same is true of Tyus Jones and Brandon Clarke as reserves for Memphis. Include those four alongside Memphis’ three stars and the potential of Ziaire Williams, and that’s a group on eight players that can help Memphis get to a true title contender position in the weeks ahead. They just need time…time that they have a bit of thanks to their record, but not much due to the parity in the conference. And who knows…if Danny Green does indeed return by around the All-Star Break, that could be the midseason acquisition of veteran presence and shooting the teams needs.
If the team chose to go the route of a trade (spoiler alert - they won’t) there are options there as well. Danny Green and a 1st round pick likely gets you SOMETHING…and tagging Xavier Tillman Sr. for salary matching purposes could make a lot of sense. But as I outlined last week, the Grizzlies are best when developing “their own”. Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan…in a vacuum, they make Memphis better talent-wise than the pieces theoretically shipped out (more would likely be needed in a hypothetical Kuzma - and especially a DeRozan - deal). Talent and fit don’t always align, however, and a trade of that scope in-season while the team is in line to contend would be a first for this group, both on the floor and in the front office.
This team has options. A lot of options. Ways for improvement from within. Development of young pieces (remember Bane/Morant/Jackson Jr. are all under the age of 25). Trade, if deemed appropriate/necessary. And when you have so many swings at the proverbial pinata, naturally your odds of breaking it open go up. The road record must improve…but health and experience on the floor together will naturally make that better. Memphis didn’t magically go from one of the NBA’s best road teams last year (26-15) to the worst. Role players do better at home than on the road historically, and few teams have asked as much of their role players so far this season as the Grizzlies.
The defense must be better, especially on the perimeter. But Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s continued presence will help make that happen. There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that is true. Memphis’ offense must diversify…but Desmond Bane will not, and Ziaire Williams should not, continue to be as poor of shooters as they have been since their return to injury (Bane in a smaller sample, but both overall small). And if they do? If the Grizzlies see fit, help from outside the team could very well be on the way (again - it won’t be).
If the Grizzlies were to stay on this path, it would be the first time Memphis either regressed or failed to progress in the Morant era. What’s more likely - the Grizzlies fading due to missed chemistry because of injury and/or hitting the proverbial development wall? Or them finding each other on the floor eventually - hopefully sooner rather than later - and going on a run?
Given the evidence from both past and present, I’d bet on the latter.