The perfect Memphis Grizzlies Post-All-Star Rotation
Playoffs will be here before we know it.
The 2022-2023 Memphis Grizzlies are approaching the All-Star Break. And with the season preparing to kick in to high gear next week as the sprint for the playoffs gets under way, Memphis has some things to reflect on. Luke Kennard has arrived, and the Grizzlies figure to get some much-needed floor spacing from his presence. The team, outside of Steven Adams, is as healthy as they have been in some time. They’re preparing to honor Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., two All-Stars, this weekend.
Exciting times…and yet, daunting ones as well.
For as good as the Memphis Grizzlies have been this season, and with the assumption they have gotten better adding a shooter like Kennard, other teams in the Western Conference pushed a little more to get across the Trade Deadline finish line. The Phoenix Suns now have Kevin Durant. Kyrie Irving is with the Mavericks. Both the Clippers and Lakers made substantial moves to move up the power rankings out west. While Memphis is still seen as a top-10 team in the league, their stranglehold on the top non-Nuggets spot in the Western Conference is very much loosening.
Finding ways to maximize their non-starting players must be a priority. The starting five of Memphis - Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Steven Adams - is a successful one, posting a +11.9 efficiency rating in 276 possessions together. But beyond those five, it has been a mixed bag of productivity. Tyus Jones has not had the season as a back-up that was expected. Brandon Clarke has played well, but not “contract extension” well. And Ziaire Williams hasn’t been able to be what Memphis needed him to be so far while his draft class mate, Santi Aldama, has outperformed expectations.
That’s why Luke Kennard is here. He likely replaces Ziaire in the calculus of the postseason preparations for now, allowing Williams to continue development while not being pressured to be more than he can be. But Tyus, Brandon, and Santi will almost certainly make up the “nasty nine” playoff rotation come the spring. After the All-Star Break, developing a plan for how to best utilize all four of these players within a Memphis rotation must be a priority.
Here’s some ideas to start off that process.
Tyus Jones is a “starter”…so…let him “start”.
This season has been unique for the “best back-up point guard in the NBA”. He’s lived up to that moniker in some ways - in nine games as a starter, Tyus has been pretty impressive - almost 300 minutes logged, shooting almost 47.5% from beyond the arc with a 61.1% mark when it comes to True Shooting. His Net Rating per Basketball Reference is a +15 as a starter, with a plus/minus per 200 possessions (100 per team) of +4.6.
As a reserve? Tyus is shooting 51.7% in terms of True Shooting. 35.2% from three. He boasts a +4 net rating, and a +1.3 plus/minus per 200 possessions mark. Still not “bad”. But far worse than what he does as a starter.
So why not maximize Tyus and allow for him to “start”?
No, I am not advocating for Jones supplanting Ja Morant. What I am arguing for, however, is an earlier exit of the game for a rest for Morant. Ja should still see at least 32 minutes per game, and Jones will still receive double-digit minutes in his own right. But Tyus coming in as the first sub for Ja allows for Jones to maximize his impact next to Bane/Brooks/Jackson Jr./Adams - at least for a while.
Jones is going to see less playing time in this plan. That’s because when you have two elite shooters, you need to find time on the floor for them together.
Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard - what a pair
Coming out for the start of second and fourth quarters, as Ja Morant gets another rest (I would put him in for the final two minutes of the 1st and 3rd quarters moving forward), instead of reserve Tyus Jones getting run with a majority of reserves, I would begin conducting a “back-up by committee” between Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard. They both have experience in this role, and while it has been a while for Kennard with enough minutes and practice he should be able to get in to the swing of things relatively easily.
Say, for example, your reserve crew is Bane/Kennard/Brooks/Aldama/Jackson Jr. Now Dillon Brooks, offensively flawed, is surrounded by two bigs that shoot 38% from three and two guards that are arguably the best three point shooters outside of Golden State in the NBA. He has lots of room to get to his spot, either by sheer force of will on a dribble drive or on a pull-up midrange jumper. It may not always go in, but at least he will have more space to operate to be in a position to be successful.
The defensive concerns combining Bane and Kennard are fair ones. Which is why this duo being together, unless it is an end of game situation where you’re alternating offense and defense, should be with them playing the “1” and “2”. The odd man out more often than not will be Tyus Jones. But because of the glut of smaller guards on Memphis, the choice basically becomes Tyus or “Nuke”.
And “Nuke” has the elite scoring skill. Tyus does not. So…Luke Kennard gets the nod.
Lean in to Santi Aldama - the “9th man”
This is a consideration that is mildly surprising, largely because of the fact that Santi Aldama is, in fact, not a wing player. He’s a 6’11” big, and his athletic ability aligns with that reality. He laterally will struggle mightily staying in front of pick and roll attacking big men at times, much less perimeter-based players. But in the absence of Ziaire Williams - at least for now - Memphis needs a guy who can score and be a presence offensively. Which is why Santi gets the nod here.
Perhaps in a theoretical 8-man rotation for the playoffs it is Aldama who gets pushed out, because if the question becomes Jones or Aldama, Tyus has experience and the ability to create offensively for himself and others. Aldama only has the former in his proverbial “bag” (although his rising assist percentage is evidence he is getting better in this area of his game) - 83% of all his made shots this season have come off of assists. Tyus is at 49%, meaning Jones is almost a perfect split between self-creation and getting help from others offensively.
That 83% mark is the exact same percentage as Luke Kennard this season, however…evidence that maybe Luke could be that 9th odd-man out. Put aside the fact he was just traded for (and therefore, barring forgetting how to shoot threes, will be in the rotation). but again, we are harkening back to Detroit Pistons Luke Kennard, where this is not the case. Kennard in Detroit got that shots assisted on number all the way down to 64%. That’s not as good as Jones, but it is good enough to suggest that Kennard has more to offer than catch and shoot threes.
That’s not the case with Santi. And while his shooting ability makes him attractive when compared to the non-threat from range that is Brandon Clarke, Clarke’s athleticism, switchability defensively, and finishing ability at the rim on the pick and roll put him ahead of Aldama in that way as well.
For the regular season, Aldama logging 16 or so minutes a game with several coming as a “wing” next to the likes of Clarke and Jackson Jr. makes a lot of sense. A Jones/Brooks/Aldama/Jackson Jr./Adams lineup, for example, combines size with defensive acumen and allows for Santi to maximize his skill set as a shooter on the perimeter while Adams sets the screens for Jones (or whoever the point guard is).
The minutes breakdown
Ja Morant - 34
Desmond Bane - 34
Dillon Brooks - 32
Jaren Jackson Jr. - 34
Steven Adams - 28
Tyus Jones- 15
Luke Kennard - 24
Santi Aldama - 15
Brandon Clarke - 24
Final Thoughts
Let Santi Aldama and Jaren Jackson Jr. continue to cook. In just 50 minutes played together, the Jaren/Santi pairing is a +28.7. Santi on the “wing” helps with getting those two more run together, especially once Steven Adams returns. An Aldama/Jackson Jr./Adams front court would be massive…and at least at the rim would not be torched defensively.
Luke Kennard will be Ja Morant’s best friend. Opponents cannot help off of Kennard to collapse on a Morant drive. Find ways to exploit that on a nightly basis - while Desmond Bane is on the floor this held true for part of Grizzlies games. Now it can be accurate for almost the entire contest.
Steven Adams surprisingly hold the key. He covered up so many flaws of what this young roster is capable of doing. The screening, the rebounding...the willingness to play winning basketball without ever taking a shot! He matters a hell of a lot, and (hopefully) coming out of the All-Star Break Memphis will be close to seeing him return.