The Friday Three: Keys to a successful Grizzlies road trip
Here's how Memphis can keep the good times rolling.
The hottest team in the NBA is the Memphis Grizzlies. That’s undisputed - when you’ve won 11 games in a row and the next closest team has won 8 (the also-excellent Denver Nuggets) you get to lay claim to such a title. But it hasn’t always been easy. See, for example, the Grizzlies most recent win over the Cavaliers that came down to the final seconds. Memphis did enough to survive Wednesday night, making key plays in major moments to secure their 11th consecutive victory.
But the challenges that Cleveland presented will be appearing again soon, not from the Cavs themselves but from similarly skilled teams as the Grizzlies embark on a five-game road trip starting tonight in Los Angeles against the Lakers.
From L.A to Phoenix, then Sacramento to San Francisco, before ending in Minneapolis - the stretch ahead is eerily reminiscent of the last time Memphis was away from FedExForum for an extended period of time. Losses to Oklahoma City, Golden State, and Denver led to a 1-3 road trip for the Grizzlies - and contributed to a lot of questions about “what comes next” for Ja Morant and company. Every team hits slow spots in the long NBA season, and it seems that bad run was just that with the Grizzlies.
If Memphis hopes to keep pace with Denver in the Western Conference, they can’t allow for a losing skid to occur. That’s not to say the Grizzlies will return to Memphis on a 16-game winning streak - that’s pretty idealistic thinking, especially when considering that the Grizzlies are only 11-10 on the road. Even with their current high rate of play, it is more than possible - maybe probable? - the winning streak ends for Memphis at some point over the next five games.
It doesn’t have to, of course - and even a 3-2 west coast swing would be a win, compared to their last road trip. How can the Grizzlies get back to their “road warrior” ways?
Stay on the attack
In Memphis’ loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder a little over a month ago, the Grizzlies took 45 three point shots. This season, on average Head Coach Taylor Jenkins’ squad takes 33 threes per game. Considering Memphis is 19th in the NBA in three point percentage (35.1%), and combining that with the amount of attempts per contest, the Grizzlies are not a major threat from beyond the arc. Unless your name is Desmond Bane.
45 shots from three shouldn’t happen again as Memphis takes on the likes of the Lakers, a team comparable to the Thunder in terms of record and lack of rim protection (with Anthony Davis out for the Lakers, that is). L.A. is one of the worst defenses in the NBA, struggling to keep teams from getting to their spots or to create turnovers. Opposing teams have success at the rim, shooting 67% in the paint. And Memphis, while one of the worst teams percentage-wise in the NBA at the rim offensively, is impactful scoring in that area because of their offensive rebounding prowess (3rd in the NBA) and their still-elite play in transition (5th in the NBA).
Whether it is via speed or glass-eating strength, it all adds up to attacking. The Grizzlies must be on the offensive while on offense - all gas, very little brakes. Get down hill, get opposing teams in foul trouble, get defenses to collapse so when you DO take threes, they’re in rhythm and with more space than a forced shot that may not be the best decision in a possession.
Get Santi Aldama next to Jaren Jackson Jr.
Santi Aldama has arguably been the best surprise of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies. His abrupt rise to a serviceable rotation piece on a team with title aspirations from a much smaller role in his rookie campaign last year probably shouldn’t shock us now. The Grizzlies development system is almost undefeated in the Ja Morant Era when it comes to taking talent that fits what Memphis wants to do and helping them get to where Head Coach Taylor Jenkins and the team needs them to be.
Santi is just another example of that being true. And for Aldama, he has a skill set that compliments that of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke - two players who are limited on the perimeter but strong in the pick and roll game. Aldama is shooting 40% from beyond the arc, meaning spacing is ideal next to a screening Adams or Clarke.
But these pairings with Aldama don’t really show that statistically. In 262 minutes together Clarke and Aldama only are a +3.1 in net rating, whereas Adams and Aldama are a better +6.7 in a staggering 510 minutes together. That’s good - very good in the Adams/Aldama case - but is it good enough to keep Aldama away from the best Grizzlies big, Jaren Jackson Jr.?
For a team that at times is looking for offensive sparks, this pairing is an under-explored one. Aldama and Jackson Jr. have only logged 7 minutes together, per NBA.com/stats. Kennedy Chandler and John Konchar have been on the floor more as a duo. And while the logic is sound - Adams and Aldama for that offensive balance, Jackson Jr. and Clarke for defensive malleability - Jaren and Santi almost certainly possess the best offensive ceiling at this stage of the season.
Memphis has the rotation they do at this stage, and it is unlikely the rock the boat much - if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? But imagine a Ja Morant/Desmond Bane/Dillon Brooks/Jaren Jackson Jr./Santi Aldama lineup. Defensive impact between Brooks and Jackson Jr. Offensive versatility across all five positions. It would create an imbalance at spots, and this perhaps couldn’t be utilized often because of it. It also would likely require extra Jaren Jackson Jr. minutes, meaning less Adams or Clarke on the floor. That’s not necessarily ideal either - nor is the Adams/Clarke duo (a -20 in 17 minutes together this season) whose offensive predictability would necessitate Desmond Bane, Ja Morant, and Dillon Brooks being on the floor with them just to provide shot creation support. Again, balance is risked.
But for a team with halfcourt offense woes, to have two bigs capable of shooting threes and create off the dribble for themselves NOT play together seems like a missed opportunity. If the offense gets stuck in the mud at Golden State or Minnesota, it may be worth a look. Opposing defenses won’t have it scouted, and while rebounding may struggle the ability to run and go 5-out on offense could outweigh that. And Aldama, while not an elite defender by any stretch, can hold his own against lesser bigs if Jaren draws the more difficult assignment.
That’s also likely part of why this twosome isn’t getting more run together. Jaren is much more familiar with Clarke, and Adams as a point of attack/drop defender allows for Jaren to do more on the help/weak side of scheme, maximizing Jaren’s defensive strengths. But as the playoffs approach, teams will come up with ways to counter what makes Jackson Jr. great. A Santi/Jaren pairing puts Jaren in another position for growth…and allows for even more room for Morant and the other primary perimeter players to create. Or if Jenkins is concerned about the defensive/rebounding ramifications, a Tyus Jones/Desmond Bane/Ziaire Williams/Jaren/Santi lineup can get to similar - if not less explosive - places offensively.
Those two - whether they play together or not - plus the need to remain on the attack offensively - will make for three major factors on whether or not Memphis will be able to feel better about this road trip than they did the last.