The Friday Three: Forces holding the Memphis Grizzlies down

Welcome back, underdogs.

The Memphis Grizzlies are at the All-Star Break, looking down a road that is brighter than it has ever been in franchise history. Geoff Calkins of the Daily Memphian outlined the reasons why brilliantly in his recent column on the matter. A 50-win pace despite now being the league’s 3rd youngest team after the Luke Kennard/Danny Green trade (they were 5th before) should not be taken for granted. No one is winning more with a roster - both rostered and actual rotation - than the Memphis Grizzlies.

That is easily taken for granted…but for understandable reasons.

Memphis has been the #2 seed already with almost exactly this same group of players - minus a De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson. With the arrival of Kennard at the trade deadline and the rise of Santi Aldama, the Grizzlies now look a bit closer to the roster that went to the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs and pushed the eventual champions - the Golden State Warriors - in a 6-game series. It is a differently assembled back end of the rotation, but a similarly constructed core of a title contender.

So forgive the Western Conference Finals dreams, the NBA Finals visions. They figure to be the next logical step for a team striving to be better than they were the season before every season, as they have been every year of the Ja Morant Era to this point. But as so many have said that are associated with, or cover, the Memphis Grizzlies. Progress is not linear. And while the team’s long-term future may well be as bright as it ever has been, there are forces in play against the Grizzlies that even they cannot control.

Time

There’s no real need to elaborate too fully on this point. But, dear reader, you know this writer well. There has to be SOME elaboration. As mentioned above, the Grizzlies - historically speaking - too young to contend. Their three best players are under the age of 25. And while some say that age does not matter, precedent would disagree with that sentiment. Memphis currently has a rotation that boasts an average age of roughly 24.75 years. Only once in NBA history has a champion won a title with an average age of 24 - the Portland Trail Blazers in 1976-1977. The other youngest squads to pull it off were, in order…

• 1955-56 Philadelphia Warriors - 25.58 years

• 1979-80 LA Lakers - 25.71 years

• 1954-55 Syracuse Nationals - 25.86 years

• 1951-52 Minneapolis Lakers - 25.94 years

Those that come before would suggest that the Grizzlies are just about a year away from being a historically young title winner. The 1976-77 Trail Blazers - at a remarkable 24.19 year old average age - are the exception to this rule.

It makes the reported big swings for the likes of Kevin Durant and Mikal Bridges all the more impressive. Of course a Durant acquisition would’ve upped the roster age a decent amount (to that of one of those squads listed above), but the fact remains that the stars of this roster are almost certainly not ready to compete at the highest levels of NBA basketball.

It doesn’t mean that it’s not worth playing. Record stand until they don’t, and even the most seemingly impossible goal can be achieved - LeBron James, NBA All-Time Scoring Leader, says hello.

But to feel any disappointment regarding a Memphis title run falling short would be short-sighted. The team tried to add pieces to complete a championship puzzle and - through no real fault of their own - was unable to. Thems the breaks.

It doesn’t change history, though. And while these Grizzlies COULD do the near-impossible, COULD and SHOULD are two very different auxiliary verbs.

Speed

The Grizzlies are one of the league’s worst halfcourt offenses. That likely isn’t a surprise to you. What may be somewhat surprising is that while Memphis is rated 22nd in the NBA in halfcourt scoring, the Grizzlies overall have regressed offensively. Last season Memphis was 4th in points per possession in the NBA at 115.8. This season, despite a modest .3 decline in points, the Grizzlies are 13th. They’re a middle-of-the-road offense while being essentially the same offense in terms of production.

How can this be? The pace Memphis plays with has actually increased, and the Grizzlies remain one of the league’s best transition offenses. Opposing teams have improved or upgraded their scoring output while Memphis has not. The issue is rooted in how the Grizzlies are making fewer shots per game this season. One fewer bucket per game does not a slower offensive system make. The Grizzlies are also only making one more free throw per game while taking two more per contest, and are also securing fewer steals per game and offensive rebounds.

That means fewer chances to convert easy points. Fewer possessions to make up for shot making short comings. And while there are reasons to be optimistic this will improve (Ja Morant is scoring less than he did last year, Dillon Brooks is ice cold from the floor, the eventual return of rebounder extraordinaire Steven Adams, Luke Kennard is an offensive spacing weapon) it also is unlikely the Grizzlies combine internal growth with external production enough to win a title thanks to offensive production.

(Defying) Gravity

The youth of this team alongside the struggles they have in half-court offense likely means a trip to the NBA Finals may be out of the question. But for the Memphis Grizzlies, doing more than expected is par for the course. Many expected a step back this season - myself included. And perhaps that is still the case, depending on your definition. They’re on pace for 50 wins this season, which would be a successful campaign but would fall short of their franchise-tying 56 victory mark of a season ago.

Progress isn’t linear though, remember? If 50 wins in a parity-stricken Western Conference gets Memphis the 3 or 4 seed, and results in them hosting a playoff series against, say, the Sacramento Kings? And the Grizzlies win that series and go in to the 2nd round against either Phoenix or Denver? Will a loss in that series really mean the Memphis roster - the 3rd youngest in the league - went “backwards”?

Or will it simply be a reminder of the strength of star veteran presence - and the reality that the Grizzlies simply do not have that yet?

This Memphis team is flawed - perhaps fatally so. But they’re also used to being overlooked, which almost certainly will happen now that Kevin Durant is in the Western Conference. They will be a popular choice to tumble down the standings as Phoenix and even teams like the Clippers make an ascent. And in that process, they will again be able to claim the mantle of underdog. That motivation can mask missing schematic pieces…especially when paired with the experience the Grizzlies earned last year in the playoffs.

This team does better in that underdog role. They enjoy being the hunted, but the desire to prove others wrong and overcome the odds is more their speed.

Their chance to shock the NBA world again will be there. And this time, they’ll be a bit older - a bit wiser.

And a bit more prepared to fight the forces against them.