Surviving without Steven Adams
It won't be easy for the Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies, who just got healthy for the first time a month ago in terms of their projected rotation, are now once again staring down the barrel of an extended absence. This time, it is the “Big Kiwi” himself Steven Adams.
Adams isn’t as explosive as Ja Morant. He doesn’t bear the offensive burden that Desmond Bane does, or ignite the defense’s efficiency like Jaren Jackson Jr. But he does so much that helps win basketball games…and is a rare veteran presence on a team full of players under the age of 25.
As my Locked On Grizzlies partner Damichael Cole says below…there’s not really any way for Memphis to replace THIS.
He will be missed. And while the Grizzlies have a solid array of bigs beyond Adams, his departure from the rotation until roughly the All-Star Game will be noticeable. For a halfcourt offense that struggles (23rd in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass) his elite offensive rebounding (17.5%, 99th percentile in the NBA among bigs) matters. A lot.
His presence makes for the 2nd best efficiency differential on the Grizzlies, behind just Jaren Jackson Jr., and the Memphis offense - despite his limitations - is 8.2 points better when he is on the floor as opposed to when he is off of it. The rebounding is a major reason - but so are his screens (a top screen assister in the NBA), which create space for Ja Morant and others to operate in.
A major challenge awaits Grizzlies Head Coach Taylor Jenkins and company. What can Memphis do to get through the next roughly 10 games without their bruising big?
Unleash Jaren and Clarke
When Steven Adams sat out against the Sacramento Kings on Monday night, Xavier Tillman drew the start. It went…poorly…not necessarily because of Tillman, who actually shot an efficient 5-6 from the field. But still, in a game where not a lot went right for the Grizzlies, “X” brings a limited offensive skill set to the table. Even though he is the next “traditional” big on the roster in terms of using his size to clean the glass and screen, leaning in to X because he is the closest thing to Adams would be a mistake moving forward.
It’s time to let the future - at least, the assumed future - stand up and show out.
The tandem of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke possesses tantalizing potential on both ends of the floor. Their partnership is productive (their 13.3 net rating together per NBA.com/stats is 2nd best among big pairings on the team, outside of Adams and JJJ) and also means defensive versatility that Steven Adams does not possess. Switchable bigs are valuable in the NBA - it allows for three point shots and help defense to be varied, with coverages and how you attack screens varying from potentially possession to possession.
That’s possible with Tillman to an extent, but he doesn’t possess the athleticism and leaping ability/quickness off the floor that Clarke does. Nor is he as big of a roll threat as Clarke is in pick situations. While Tillman Sr. has displayed an improved floater in recent games, Clarke has basic enough self-creation ability to be able to get to his spot and get off a shot off the dribble, like his own patented floater. That isn’t X’s game.
Jaren and Clarke have experience together, and they have complimentary talents. Rebounding is a concern…but again, replacing Adams isn’t possible without a trade in that area. Clarke and Jackson Jr. will garner more turnovers in terms of steals and blocks potentially as they attack passing lanes and play more on the perimeter, helping make up some of what is lost with Steve-O out.
But you can’t fit a square peg in a round hole. Trying to be a lesser version of the starting five because Tillman’s skills best mirror what Adams does will only lessen the impact of the other four.
That doesn’t mean X doesn’t have a path to playing well, though, if that is the way Jenkins decides to roll.
Keep Morant and Tillman Together Where Possible
Quick - outside of Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., who does Ja Morant have the highest net rating with? It’s not Steven Adams…or Dillon Brooks.
It is Xavier Tillman.
Surprised? Maybe you shouldn’t be. Again, Tillman is able to use his body/size in a similar fashion to Adams. No pairing has logged as many minutes together this season (910!!!) as Adams and Morant, so you can argue Ja has the most that will change in terms of how his gameplan to attack offenses works.
But Tillman, while not as big as Adams, uses force to maximize his impact. He’s a better screener in terms of “getting big” and putting his body in a position to be effective than Clarke and Jackson Jr. are - or Santi Aldama - and for a player as pick and roll dependent as Morant, that ability to get to an angle or edge off a strong screen is almost like breathing.
A move to Tillman the starter - like what happened against Sacramento - may not be the most imaginative move. In fact, it’s predictable. For a team in the middle of a three-game losing streak, the loss of Adams seems like an opportunity to shake things up a bit.
But if we have learned anything from the Memphis Grizzlies over the last for years, consistency is key - especially when it comes to maximizing Ja Morant. His game is dependent on having the ability to weave and work through space. That real estate in the paint can get crammed in a hurry, and in the absence of elite floor spacing the Grizzlies get that for Ja through the work on screens of Adams.
With him out? Tillman’s “next best thing” reality may outweigh the monotony of his game overall. He can hang with smaller bigs, and force teams to get outside their own comfort zones at times because of the directness of his movement and the drive to get to where he’s supposed to be, utilizing his size and understanding of body position to better compete than perhaps he should in the NBA.
So much of what makes Adams great for Memphis - low usage, high screener and rebounder - is why Tillman will likely remain the starter as long as Adams is out. While rocking the boat feels right in the middle of a losing streak, the larger sample size of the #2 seed in the Western Conference suggests that the team is, in fact, still good.
But without Adams generating extra possessions by his rebounding or being elite at being big, the job for the Grizzlies just got more difficult and should lend itself to more experimentation in the front court with different pairings. The aggressive, non-committal to offensive production Adams is a unique fit on this team can easily be underappreciated. But with “Steve-O” out for the next few weeks, the team must find a way to survive as he recovers and replicate his contributions in a variety of ways, from more “stocks” to firmer screens.
Increased roles for Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman Sr. are coming. But so too could a return to the rotation of David Roddy, whose frame and ability to run and create off the dribble could enable him in small-ball situations to have success in a front court position. Discovering fits and finer adjustments beyond the base concept of what Jenkins wants the rotation to be is key in the games ahead.
For things could get complicated quickly in the Western Conference as the Grizzlies strive to stay near the top of the postseason picture.