Memphis Grizzlies Trade Deadline Primer
Why the Memphis Grizzlies will, and won't, make a deal.
The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the worst NBA teams of the last 10 games. Among current playoff (not play-in) teams, no one has a worse record (2-8) in their last 10 than Memphis. And it’s the usual suspects showing up unwanted over and over again. Terrible 4th quarter scoring. Miserable bench execution offensively. Missed defensive rotations on the perimeter. And coaching substitutions and sets that do not help a team trying to navigate a variety of distractions, both on and off the court.
The team is most definitely looking their age at this moment in the season. On top of the on-court problems, Ja Morant is dealing with accusations against members of his group of friends or associates that, whether they’re true or not, do not look good in the court of public opinion. This, while at the same time on a lighter note Dillon Brooks served a one-game suspension for hitting Donovan Mitchell in the groin, is further evidence that this Grizzlies group is in desperate need of veteran presence. Of “growing up”, as Mark Giannotto of the Commercial Appeal put it.
But will that come organically? Or from the outside of the organization, for the first time in a long time?
Not since the 2020 trade for Justise Winslow have the Memphis Grizzlies made a sizable in-season transaction. But if there was ever a day to consider making an exchange over the course of the next several days, it is this one. Something needs to be shaken up…but again, what? Is a continued tinkering with the starting 5 with Steven Adams out the answer? Or does help need to come from elsewhere?
The way this writer sees it, the Grizzlies have three options. And I will detail them in the order I see them happening - from least likely, to most likely.
Lets stop the dreaming first.
The Memphis Grizzlies go “all-in” (not)
What is the best “realistic” offer Memphis can make for O.G. Anunoby of the Toronto Raptors? Is it Dillon Brooks - a player whose importance to winning has been stated consistently but actually can be replaced - and multiple 1st round picks the answer? Or if you’re in the camp of Dillon Brooks Island residents that feel both Brooks and Anunoby can co-exist, does Danny Green (still early, but he has not looked ready for prime time as of yet) and Ziaire Williams (has seen a reduced role in recent games due to his own struggles) plus multiple 1sts get the job done?
The answer in both cases is probably no. Toronto can probably get more from a team like the Pelicans (although Zach Kleiman, Grizzlies GM, helping make New Orleans pay more for Anunoby would be good to see) than they can from Memphis. Draft picks are nice, but NOLA combines both picks and actual talent like Dyson Daniels or Jaxson Hayes in a better way than the Grizzlies.
Besides, what has been seen from this Memphis team over the last two or so weeks to make you believe they’re ready to contend for an NBA title? They’re still so young - their best 3 players are under the age of 25 - and there’s no way to accelerate the aging process in terms of “readiness” for the moment. There has been some postseason success, but the reserves of now (more on that in a minute) are not what they were last season, or the season before. The bench needs work.
So, in the absence of Anunoby AND Brooks (likely becoming a willing sixth man, not a high probability) being on the roster, there is no other realistic target that theoretically both amplifies the strength of the staring five (when healthy) while helping the reserves provide more punch towards winning basketball.
This is a team that goes “all-in” for draft picks. Not in the season. And while this perhaps would have been more palatable three weeks ago, the events of this recent skid do not illicit the confidence that Anunoby - a very, very good player, but not a great one - turns the Memphis tide right now. The juice is not worth the squeeze.
The Grizzlies do nothing (maybe)
Much like the odds of Memphis going “all'-in” were likely higher three weeks ago, the odds of them standing pat were probably higher too. Remember, there are three options on the table here - and the one we will discuss as “most likely” now perhaps was least likely then. Funny what runs of poor play will do to your perception of a team.
Still, Occam’s Razor tells us that the most likely result is the easiest one. And the easiest thing for the Grizzlies to do at the trade deadline is, well, nothing. There have been few rumors regarding Memphis’ trade activity. This isn’t too surprising - the Grizzlies play things pretty close to the vest. But other than obvious leaks from others (the Anunoby “Memphis/New Orleans bidding war” report, for example, that clearly is from Toronto) there hasn’t been much rumor from Zach Kleiman’s camp.
Is it because “King Kleiman” excels at screening the smoke? Or because there is no fire?
The Grizzlies fan base is getting restless. But that does not mean the Memphis front office will adjust their timeline for this franchise. Perhaps they agree a move must come (more in a bit on that), but that won’t be because people of Twitter are pissed. It’ll be because it was always part of their plan to explore options, and maybe the team’s current state of play allows for them to be a bit more aggressive than in deadlines past.
The maturity issues can be turned around and used as a reason to “check” at the deadline, and punt any form of movement to the summer. See whether or not Taylor Jenkins and the team can get right from within…perhaps creating a larger sample size for a future massive trade. The NBA Draft, as previously discussed, is where this front office likes to be active.
History tells us Memphis won’t budge at the deadline for anyone, unless they choose to. That remains a distinct possibility. But recent events perhaps mean that, for the first time in some time, in-season change is coming.
Memphis makes moves (the prediction)
Notice I did not write “move”. “Moves” is plural…and I see them potentially being fairly active at this deadline. Not because they are reading the angry tweets and comments on YouTube. But for the first time in years, noticeable holes in the armor are apparent and are also leading to long streaks of losing. This cannot be sustained. Every season of the Ja Morant Era has been on an upward trajectory. For season four - the one before his max contract kicks in - to be the one where things regress isn’t an option.
So what can the Grizzlies do? Well, the two most noticeable issues are team defense on the perimeter and scoring pop off the bench. Memphis can address both those things in a three-team trade with the Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls. Now, this could happen as separate transactions - for the sake of ease, I am showing it as one lump deal.
It’s not the “sexiest” trade. No star players, or even a Saddiq Bey type (who would almost certainly cost Memphis a 1st round pick, and I have a hard time seeing the team be willing to part with one of those at this stage). But it addresses the two questions had about the reserve unit in particular. Alex Caruso is essentially a taller DeAnthony Melton, albeit on lower usage (12.9% is among the lowest for NBA combo guards, per Cleaning the Glass). But his size allows for him to play alongside both Ja Morant and Tyus Jones, and he is elite at creating “stocks” (steals and blocks). Teams score 7.4 fewer points when Caruso is on the floor, and he is a +10.4 in net efficiency differential.
And if he were willing to shoot just a bit more (41% from three currently) he’d add another marksman from range. But his presence would be more as a secondary facilitator and defender, enabling Morant and Jones to take on more scoring opportunity.
Or, if Memphis did go out and bring in two veterans, Burks could also benefit from Caruso’s willingness to pass on to the next scorer. Burks is currently having the best offensive season of his career and that shines through in his shooting percentages, not just from three (which is damn impressive at 44%) but from everywhere. He is not the defender you want him to be - although he is performing at league levels in terms of steals - but that’s not why the Grizzlies would be bringing him in on the wing.
Memphis would want his scoring. And alongside Jones, Brandon Clarke, and Santi Aldama, would be another offensive weapon with a game malleable enough to fit with any of the starters for a prolonged period of time.
This trade (or trades), beyond on-the-court contributions, makes sense for the Grizzlies for two reasons.
THESE ARE NOT YOUNG DUDES. While they’re not planting their flag and laying claim to Memphis Grizzlies territory, they’re also not going to rock the boat. They are vets, coming from bad teams in Chicago and Detroit to a good one in Memphis. They’ll work to fit in and help fix the issues as best they can.
THE GRIZZLIES KEEP THEIR FIRST ROUND FLEXIBILITY. In the event they want to make a more sweeping exchange of players and draft assets in the future, nothing is compromised in that way. Memphis was never going to use all these 2nd round picks. But now, instead of moving up for future players, they’re bringing in guys to help right the Grizzlies ship in the here and now.
In this scenario, Danny Green almost certainly gets bought out by the Detroit Pistons and gets to pick his next team - maybe a return to Philly, or the Milwaukee Bucks or Boston Celtics to make a run for a title. Jake LaRavia - currently out of the Grizzlies in the rotation, at least for now - is the prime piece exiting Memphis. But his deal alongside that of Tillman makes the money work, and essentially losing LaRavia is the price of acknowledging that De’Anthony Melton’s exit hurt the Grizzlies - at least in the regular season.
But that’s the beauty of this, if it indeed does indeed come to pass (option 2 above, where Memphis does nothing, feels pretty realistic as well). The Grizzlies front office has an opportunity to “right” the “wrong” while not losing either David Roddy or Ziaire Williams, who both have played larger roles this season for this team. But say Memphis wants to keep LaRavia and Tillman (which would make sense from a depth perspective) - perhaps Chicago would take Williams and 1 2nd round pick instead of LaRavia/Tillman and 2 2nd rounders. That’d work as well, it would just mean Memphis would be giving up on their biggest draft prospect to date…which seems like a pretty rapid fall from grace, and a rash decision Memphis isn’t in the business of making.
The flaw in this deal is the Grizzlies would have to sign an emergency big man (or call up Kenneth Lofton Jr., if they think he’s ready) to the Grizzlies roster permanently. But between the buy-out market and the G-League (again, Lofton Jr., he’s right there) that wouldn’t be too hard to find. Ziaire keeps developing, and isn’t needed for the upcoming Grizzlies playoff push if he’s not ready to develop. Perhaps some G-League minutes could be in his theoretical future…
And that is why I landed on this being the “best” option for Memphis at the NBA Trade Deadline. Because they do want to walk the line of contending and “rebuilding”, at least in terms of young talent. And despite Ziaire’s struggles, he embodies that commitment more than any current player. Williams has terrific potential. It’s just not ready for an NBA title contending team to depend on yet.
Caruso and Burks are ready to rock. And can be had without sacrificing the here and now. The middle way, then, is the path for Memphis this trade deadline.