Memphis Grizzlies End-of-Season Predictions
Go out on a limb. Take an NBA leap.
We’re just a day away from meaningful NBA basketball returning. The players needed the rest, as did the coaches (and content creators) - but now the sprint to the finish of the regular season is upon us. The Memphis Grizzlies are currently the #2 seed in the Western Conference standings, five games behind the Denver Nuggets and three games up on the Sacramento Kings. Below them is a free-for-all between teams all the way down the the #13-seeded Los Angeles Lakers.
That is 13 teams trying to make the postseason. And 11 teams actively chasing the Memphis Grizzlies (and by distant proxy the Denver Nuggets)
There are reasons for concern. Despite Ja Morant saying the Grizzlies are “fine in the west”, none of the other current 11 playoff/non-play-in teams has conference record worse than that of the Grizzlies (16-14). But there are also reasons for optimism - per Tankathon, Memphis has the 7th easiest remaining schedule in the entire NBA. Only the Dallas Mavericks among current West playoff/non-play-in squads have an easier path over the final slate of games.
Still, after the slow end to the pre-All-Star stretch (4-9 in their last 13) there are understandable causes for caution. Much of the conference improved, and while that is also true of the Grizzlies after the arrival of Luke Kennard how much that addition matters alongside those of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and others to their respective teams remains to be seen.
Where will Memphis be at the end of the regular season? Who will help the Grizzlies get there? Time for some bold end-of-season predictions.
The Memphis Grizzlies will be the #2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs
Bold, right?
With 25 games to go, it would be quite difficult for an opposing team to chase down the Grizzlies as long as the team stays healthy. This is in large part because of the difficult stretch of games ahead of Memphis opponents for the #3 seed.
Say, for example, the Memphis Grizzlies barely break .500 over their last 25 games. That’d make Ja Morant and company 13-12 and would put them with a record of 48-34 - pretty good, especially in a parity-riddled Western Conference. Despite the disappointment of “going backwards” and under-performing relative to their pre-All-Star numbers of 35-22 (roughly 10% better in terms of win percentage) the Sacramento Kings would need to go 16-9 across their final 25 just to tie the Grizzlies.
That 16-9 would have to come against the NBA’s 4th most difficult remaining schedule per Tankathon. While the Kings have been a great story and they have one of the NBA’s best offenses, that couples with carrying one of the league’s absolute worst defenses. Even if they’re able to maintain their current 56% win percentage against such a slate, that’d put them at 14-11.
One game better than Memphis in our exercise, but still two games back in the standings.
The same can be said of the Los Angeles Clippers (2nd toughest schedule per Tankathon) and Phoenix Suns (6th toughest). As mentioned above, only Dallas has an easier slate than Memphis - actually the easiest in the league. But at 5.5 games back, and 60 games already played, the Mavs would need to go 17-5 in their final 22 to tie a 13-12 Grizzlies team.
Possible? Yes. Probable? No. And this is projecting the low-end of possibilities for Memphis. FiveThirtyEight’s projected record for the Grizzlies is 51-31. If that happened, the Kings would have to go 19-6 to catch Memphis and the Mavericks would need to 20-2.
The #2 seed is the Grizzlies for the taking.
Desmond Bane will return to All-Star form
Even in the face of a tougher schedule ahead for Memphis, a winning record - anywhere between the aforementioned 13-12 “disaster zone” to a bit better than FiveThirtyEight’s 16-9 prediction - should be the expectation. For that to occur, the Grizzlies will need the Desmond Bane that was around before his toe injury to come back.
There is early evidence that is the case. Across 12 games before the injury, Bane was scoring almost 24.7 points per game on about 62.2% True Shooting per basketball-reference.com. That is All-Star caliber production.
Don’t take my word for it. I am biased.
He was a “no-brainer All-Star” three and a half months ago.
And while his percentages have gotten back to around that range in 2023 after a rough return in December from his toe injury that cost him a significant stretch of games, his points per game actually has fallen to 21.2 per contest.
While Bane has played fewer minutes (about 31 per game compared to 33.5 before the injury) the main reason for this is fewer attempted shots. Bane took 17.75 shots per game prior to his injury. In 2023 (again, removing the really bad December stretch because it was out of character for Des) he has taken 15.7. Two fewer shots total per game. He is also taking fewer free throws per contest (4.75 prior to injury, 2.94 in 2023).
For a player that is in the 85th percentile in points per shot attempt that also shoots 90% from the free throw line, that should not continue.
Moving forward, Ja Morant should be the superstar focus. Jaren Jackson Jr. is the defensive engine - but third offensive option. Desmond Bane, as long as he physically is capable of doing so, must regain his aggression he had prior to the toe injury for the Grizzlies to reach the upper levels of projections in their final record.
While it may not get them to the #1 seed, it would put them in a position to make a deeper run in the playoffs. Because where half-court offense lacks, while it is nice to have Steven Adams garnering extra possessions a sharpshooter that can attack the basket off the dribble consistently makes even more of a difference.
Hopefully the week off did wonders for the big toe of Bane.
Dillon Brooks progresses to his mean
Chances are, you are well aware of how bad Dillon Brooks has been offensively. You can pretty easily argue that it is the worst season on that end of the court of his entire career (8th percentile in points per shot attempt - yikes!) which makes his +5.9 efficiency differential all the more impressive. It is also important to point out that same +5.9 is the worst number he’s posted since the 2019-2020 season. For almost 2,900 minutes before this season his net positive number was well north of 8, and he made the Grizzlies offense about 3.5 points better per 100 possessions than he is currently doing according to Cleaning the Glass.
Dillon is shooting well below career averages almost across the entire scoring spectrum. In terms of Effective Field Goal Percentage, this is the worst season of Brooks’ career by just over 2%. And he is about 2.5% worse than he has been the previous two seasons combined.
Dillon Brooks has never been a good offensive player. Arguably his best season on offense, his rookie season, had him scoring at a below average rate. Efficiency has never been his strong suit…and it likely never will be. You live with that reality because of the defender that he is.
But he’s never been this bad. And that likely will not continue, if precedent is an indicator. He didn’t just forget how to do this…he just has gotten away from using his best asset defensively - his frame and tenacity - on the offensive end.
He needs to get to the rim more consistently - 22% of his shot attempts come there, which isn’t uncommon in his career but it is far too low. 29% of his looks were there last season - a career high. At least then he’s drawing fouls, at times trying to find cutters or rollers opposite of him at the basket, or attempting a shot with a higher frequency of success than his midrange jumper (38% from the midrange, 56% conversion rate at the rim).
And seeing the ball go in the bucket will only inspire further confidence. And for a player like Dillon, that matters immensely.
The Grizzlies have 25 games to prepare for the postseason. To get Desmond Bane back to his pre-toe issue scoring output. To get Dillon Brooks in a position to be less of a hinderance on an already struggling offense in the half court. Steven Adams’ eventual return will help in that regard. And of course, with Ja Morant collapsing defenses and Jaren Jackson Jr. dominating the paints of opposing teams, Memphis should absolutely be squarely in the 2 seed hunt, as they were last season.
Are the Grizzlies “fine in the west”? Depends on your definition of “fine”. They’re one of the league’s youngest teams, likely to be one of the NBA’s top-5 or so records for a second consecutive season, and with Luke Kennard playing the role of De’Anthony Melton and Santi Aldama replacing Kyle Anderson the team is roughly the same (if not theoretically better in terms of spacing, at least) than they were the year before.
So yeah, they’re “fine” in the west. And the next couple months will only confirm that.
I am predicting that unless they stop stalling the ball and relying on Ja to do something while everyone else stands there in the last 3 minutes of games they will lose their first round playoff series and go home. It drives me crazy when they stop attacking, stop moving without the ball, and look like they are just hoping the game clock will run out when they are up 6 points with 3 minutes to go. And lose.